http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/02/coalition-enters-a-policy-free-zone-on-carbon/#comments
Coalition enters a policy-free zone on carbon
So the Liberals have sorted out the leadership, at least for now.
Tony Abbott may have only beaten Malcolm Turnbull by a single vote, but
that’s as good as a landslide. Plenty of other leaders have won only
narrow victories. Billy McMahon, Billy Snedden, Bill Hayden, Mark
Latham, Brendan Nelson and Turnbull himself
.
Hmmm. Perhaps the less said about that the better.
And for now the moderate-conservative divide has been papered over,
with the conservatives in the ascendancy, moderates being told to toe
the line or have their preselections threatened (“they owe their
careers to the party”, their new leader warned yesterday, unsubtly) and
troglodytes such as Bronwyn Bishop and Sophie Mirabella in line for
promotion.
That’s two of the three issues that caused this whole disaster. On the third, things aren’t looking so good.
Putting aside its dog of a CPRS and its determination to use climate
change as a political weapon, the government has been dead right to
point out that the coalition has repeatedly delayed settling a
position on the CPRS. As each stage of the debate has unfolded — the
Garnaut Review, the Green Paper, the White Paper, the first cave-in to
polluters early this year, the introduction of the actual legislation
and its inevitable senate committees — the coalition has put off
determining a position, saying it would wait until the next stage, or
commission its own review (it’s had two of its own reviews or wait for
the legislation to appear), or wait for Copenhagen, or wait for the
Americans.
Finally, for exactly one week, they had a position on implementing
the policy John Howard took to the last election. Then, yesterday,
they demolished their own position and began calling the very policy
they had negotiated with the government and accepted last week a “giant
tax” that they would fight tooth and claw.
This confusion is mirrored in Abbott’s own position on climate
change. As Turnbull accurately noted, there isn’t a position on climate
change and the CPRS Abbott hasn’t held, despite his reputation as a
bloke who says what he believes.
Apparently he wasn’t saying what he believes when he called climate
change “crap” or claimed that the science “wasn’t settled”. Yesterday
he was back to claiming climate change was real and at least partly
caused by humans. He also, crucially, committed the coalition to the
same emissions reduction target range as the government — 5-25%.
Anyway, that’s politics, and no one would be able to do anything without a little hypocrisy.
So now Abbott has the same problem that Turnbull and Nelson faced:
what will be the coalition’s policy to address climate change?
Specifically, how will it reduce Australia’s emissions by at least 5%
by 2020, unilaterally? Because that’s what Abbott signed himself up to
on his first day in the job.
Turnbull solved the problem. He got the government to agree to an
ETS even less effective and even more rewarding to polluters than
Labor’s. Now Abbott has to do the same.
He has very few options, and none of them good, and that’s before he
even takes it to a party room divided between reactionary denialists,
emissions trading sceptics and the 29 who backed the Turnbull-amended
CPRS.
A carbon tax is not an option, and Abbott appeared to rule it out
this morning. You can’t campaign against a “giant tax” and propose one
of your own. The party of the Right can’t campaign for a vast tax while
the party of the Left wants a market-based mechanism.
You can’t have another version of the CPRS. Again, it clashes with
the coalition campaign against the CPRS if it is proposing a variant of
the same thing. And their own, Keatingesque mantra if you don’t
understand it, don’t vote for it” would apply equally to the coalition
variant.
After that, you’re down to non-economic tools: throwing money at
technology, which the government is already doing, except Abbott might
be tempted by nuclear power, the most expensive technology of the lot,
and the most frightening one to voters. Or regulating industries to
compel carbon emission reductions. Again, the party of the Right
promising big government spending, or regulation, when that of the Left
wants a market-based mechanism.
Or there’s voluntary action, which is now being promoted as some sort of silver bullet, both for households and for agriculture.
If voluntary action was going to do the trick on climate change, we
wouldn’t be having climate change. All the tree-planting and switching
off lights and biosequestration in the world won’t get us within cooee
of 5% reductions by 2020.
And you know what’s worse about the coalition’s position? They’ve
signed up to a unilateral 5%, but look like they’re walking away from
the mechanism that would have allowed Australia to actually increase
its emissions while still notionally meeting that 5% target, by buying
foreign permits. Abbott seems to have signed up to a far more draconian
target, a real 5% reduction, unleavened by trading credits from PNG and
Indonesian forests.
Quite the greenie aren’t we, Mr Abbott.
That’s why more sensible Australian businesses are mortified that the chance of passage of the CPRS has slipped away.
Whatever Frankenstein’s Monster of a policy Abbott and his team
craft over the summer break — it needs to be done by the end of
January, because the government might call a double dissolution
election in March — as Christopher Pyne noted last night, that will
need to go through the same trial by fire that Turnbull’s went through.
Most or all of the Nationals, the denialists, the ETS sceptics and the
moderates will need to be happy with it.
The coalition has spent two years running and hiding from having to
take climate change seriously, littering public debate with a string of
increasingly implausible excuses while they sought a way to deal with
their own internal divisions. Turnbull made them stop running and face
up to the challenge. Now that they’ve overturned all his work and shown
him the door, they’ve resumed running.
But they can’t run forever. Eventually Abbott will desperately wish
more Senators than Judith Troeth and Sue Boyce had crossed the floor
and got the government’s CPRS over the line.